News you won't hear at 11
News you won't hear at 11.
from Shane at Realnews...
Here's a typical example from USA Today, October 26, 2007 (p. 1B)"New Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise.New homes sales posted an unexpected increase in September. But analysts were highly skeptical given the credit crunch and predicted further sales declines. The Commerce Department said sales of new homes rose 4.8 percent last month..."By the way, here's what they didn't report. Sales in the West were up36.6 percent. The media totally discounted these statistics. How about a different headline--"Great News! Real Estate Sales Surge Despite Biggest Credit Crunch in Decades."Here's another example. In an article entitled "New Mortgage Foreclosures Set Record, (9/6/07)" Martin Crutsinger provided the following summary of a speech given by Doug Duncan, the Chief Economist for the National Mortgage Bankers Association. Here's how it was reported:"The number of homeowners receiving foreclosure notices hit a record high in the spring, driven up by problems with sub prime mortgages.The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday that mortgage-holders starting the foreclosure process in the April-June quarter reached 0.65 percent, marking the third consecutive quarter that this figure has set an all-time high.""The delinquency rate has risen to 5.12 percent...The worsening performance was driven by two factors--heavy losses in the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana, and the collapse of previously booming housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona...Analysts said the problems in the formerly red-hot housing markets of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona reflected in part speculators walking away from mortgages they can no longer afford."This article ends with the negative media's favorite theme for scaring their readers and/or listeners: "Two million people will face foreclosure in the next two years."Here are the numbers that the negative media did NOT report from Duncan's speech:1. 35 percent of the homes in the U.S. do NOT have a mortgage.2. 94.88 percent of the loans ARE performing.3. The foreclosure problem in this country is really a story about seven states.4. The biggest foreclosure problems are in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. These are manufacturing states that had horrible job losses.Since 2001, Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs. These states would probably have experienced problems no matter what the market was doing.5. The other four states, California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona,experienced significant over building. Twenty-five percent of the foreclosures in these states are on properties that are held by investors who were speculating.6. Only 25 percent of all mortgages are sub prime and of these, 75percent are performing.7. In the other 43 states, foreclosures have fallen in 2007 from2006.(Data from Michael Clawson, Vice President, Central Texas Mortgage.)RealtyTrac is reporting that only 1 out of every 196 households is facing foreclosure. Putting it a little differently, out of every1,000 households, only five are having foreclosure difficulties.Furthermore, the seven states mentioned above account for 59.6percent of all foreclosures. The other 40.4 percent is spread across43 other states. Given the amount of speculation and flipping that has taken place across the country, this is an amazingly small number.There's more good news from California. Buyers who are waiting to purchase when the so-called bubble pops in major metropolitan area sin California, are going to be sitting on the sidelines according to the latest data from the California Association of Realtors.According to Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors, the areas being hardest hit in California are the outlying areas where there has been overbuilding.The resale market in California's major markets continues to be strong. In fact, the closer you are to a metropolitan area, the better the sales are. In the million dollar plus price range, there has been essentially no change from 2006 to 2007.There's no question about the fact that there is bad news in some markets. There is also a lot of good news that is either being buried or is not being reported at all.
from Shane at Realnews...
Here's a typical example from USA Today, October 26, 2007 (p. 1B)"New Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise.New homes sales posted an unexpected increase in September. But analysts were highly skeptical given the credit crunch and predicted further sales declines. The Commerce Department said sales of new homes rose 4.8 percent last month..."By the way, here's what they didn't report. Sales in the West were up36.6 percent. The media totally discounted these statistics. How about a different headline--"Great News! Real Estate Sales Surge Despite Biggest Credit Crunch in Decades."Here's another example. In an article entitled "New Mortgage Foreclosures Set Record, (9/6/07)" Martin Crutsinger provided the following summary of a speech given by Doug Duncan, the Chief Economist for the National Mortgage Bankers Association. Here's how it was reported:"The number of homeowners receiving foreclosure notices hit a record high in the spring, driven up by problems with sub prime mortgages.The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday that mortgage-holders starting the foreclosure process in the April-June quarter reached 0.65 percent, marking the third consecutive quarter that this figure has set an all-time high.""The delinquency rate has risen to 5.12 percent...The worsening performance was driven by two factors--heavy losses in the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana, and the collapse of previously booming housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona...Analysts said the problems in the formerly red-hot housing markets of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona reflected in part speculators walking away from mortgages they can no longer afford."This article ends with the negative media's favorite theme for scaring their readers and/or listeners: "Two million people will face foreclosure in the next two years."Here are the numbers that the negative media did NOT report from Duncan's speech:1. 35 percent of the homes in the U.S. do NOT have a mortgage.2. 94.88 percent of the loans ARE performing.3. The foreclosure problem in this country is really a story about seven states.4. The biggest foreclosure problems are in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. These are manufacturing states that had horrible job losses.Since 2001, Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs. These states would probably have experienced problems no matter what the market was doing.5. The other four states, California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona,experienced significant over building. Twenty-five percent of the foreclosures in these states are on properties that are held by investors who were speculating.6. Only 25 percent of all mortgages are sub prime and of these, 75percent are performing.7. In the other 43 states, foreclosures have fallen in 2007 from2006.(Data from Michael Clawson, Vice President, Central Texas Mortgage.)RealtyTrac is reporting that only 1 out of every 196 households is facing foreclosure. Putting it a little differently, out of every1,000 households, only five are having foreclosure difficulties.Furthermore, the seven states mentioned above account for 59.6percent of all foreclosures. The other 40.4 percent is spread across43 other states. Given the amount of speculation and flipping that has taken place across the country, this is an amazingly small number.There's more good news from California. Buyers who are waiting to purchase when the so-called bubble pops in major metropolitan area sin California, are going to be sitting on the sidelines according to the latest data from the California Association of Realtors.According to Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors, the areas being hardest hit in California are the outlying areas where there has been overbuilding.The resale market in California's major markets continues to be strong. In fact, the closer you are to a metropolitan area, the better the sales are. In the million dollar plus price range, there has been essentially no change from 2006 to 2007.There's no question about the fact that there is bad news in some markets. There is also a lot of good news that is either being buried or is not being reported at all.
posted by Real Estate Girl @ 8:37 AM
0 comments
